The global macroeconomic landscape could become more fluid in 2025 as markets face increasing complexity. In the coming months, the evolution of the business cycle will likely be driven by the interaction between macro dynamics and monetary policy, with added uncertainty from potential policy changes by the new U.S. administration.
In addition, technological innovation and the broadening of the AI cycle is expected to remain an important driver across markets, with monetization becoming a greater focus in the coming quarter.
“As we transition into 2025, although business cycle dynamics remain crucial to the outlook, there will be heightened focus on policy changes in the U.S. across trade, immigration, regulatory and fiscal policies. These changes should significantly influence outcomes in the U.S. and beyond,” said Hussein Malik, head of Global Research at J.P. Morgan.
All in all, J.P. Morgan Research’s baseline scenario for 2025 is one that sees global growth still remaining strong. U.S. exceptionalism is expected to bolster the U.S. dollar and buoy U.S. risky assets, but the outlook appears more mixed for Treasuries. J.P. Morgan Research is broadly constructive on credit, anticipating modest changes in high-grade spreads, but remains cautious on EM fixed income. In addition, the outlook for U.S. equities and gold is bullish, but bearish on oil and base metals.
“The backdrop of policy uncertainty combined with geopolitical risks, however, suggests increasing macroeconomic volatility and a wider range of potential outcomes,” Malik noted.
In 2025, global equity markets could face an environment characterized by several cross-currents. “The central equity theme for next year is one of higher dispersion across stocks, styles, sectors, countries and themes. This should improve the opportunity set and provide a healthier backdrop for the active management industry after consecutive quarters of record narrow and unhealthy equity leadership,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of Global Markets Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
De-coupling central bank paths, uneven disinflation progress and technological innovation will likely continue to drive divergence across business cycles globally. Moreover, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and evolving government policy agendas could introduce unusual complexity to the stock market outlook.
In light of these factors, the current polarized regional equity performance will likely persist going into 2025, with U.S. equities preferred over eurozone and EM. For the S&P 500, J.P. Morgan Research estimates a price target of 6,500 next year, with EPS of $270.
“The U.S. could remain the global growth engine with the business cycle in expansion, a healthy labor market, broadening of AI-related capital spending, and the prospect of robust capital markets and dealmaking activity,” Lakos-Bujas noted. “On the other hand, Europe continues to face structural challenges, while EM struggles with higher-for-longer rates, the strong U.S. dollar and incremental trade policy headwinds.”
Elsewhere, Japanese equities stand to benefit from domestic reflation with improving real wage growth, accelerating buybacks and continued corporate reforms. They could also receive a boost from strong demand and favorable currency rates on the international stage.
“Overall, as 2025 progresses, there exists the potential for a convergence trade, given extreme relative positioning, valuations and price divergences across regions. However, more clarity is first needed on global trade policies and the U.S. inflation dynamic — that the latter keeps moving in the right direction,” Lakos-Bujas said.
“We think the key risk for our base case and especially the riskier segments of the market is one where the disinflation progress fully stalls and starts to reverse, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to open doors to potential hikes later in 2025 or early 2026. If this scenario were to start playing out, we will likely have to revisit our outlook,” Lakos-Bujas added.
In 2024, the global expansion proved resilient despite elevated inflation limiting central banks’ scope for rate cuts. J.P. Morgan Research’s 2025 baseline forecast incorporates an extension of this high-for-long rate environment. Global GDP is anticipated to rise 2.5% and core CPI inflation could remain sticky, remaining close to its current 3%. While consistent with limited easing in the aggregate, the global impulses that have promoted synchronization are expected to fade, and divergence among central banks is a key outlook theme.---泉港外貿(mào)網(wǎng)站推廣-泉港谷歌推廣-泉港谷歌優(yōu)化
This view contrasts with consensus projections by central banks and private forecasters, which see core CPI inflation approaching 2% and substantial easing. “Our top-down global outlook is built on an alternative narrative in which the interaction of the pandemic shock and aggressive policy responses generates reverberations that sustain elevated inflation and policy rates,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at J.P. Morgan. “This high-for-long baseline challenges consensus thinking in two important ways. First, we see goods price disinflation as having ended and do not envision a macroeconomic backdrop that supports a return of service price inflation to pre-pandemic norms. Second, we see the powerful global impulses that had promoted synchronization fading.”
Regional divergences in inflation and policy rates could become prominent as a result. Western Europe could remain a weak link and euro area policy rates are forecast to fall below 2%. In contrast, limited action is expected by the Fed and most EM central banks, which could be supportive of a “high-for-real-long” rate narrative.
Uncertainties related to U.S. policy and geopolitics loom large. If the new administration implements targeted tariffs and modest fiscal easing, the overall impact could reinforce U.S. growth outperformance and sticky global inflation. But the tail risks associated with more extreme trade and immigration policies cannot be ignored.
“Our baseline view anticipates a version of the Trump presidency that is tamer than what he campaigned on. A key risk to the outlook is if policy shifts are more extreme,” Kasman noted. “If the U.S. turns aggressively inward by sharply curtailing trade and attempting large-scale deportations, the fallout would be a far more adverse global supply shock. The disruptive impact would be amplified by retaliation and a global sentiment slide, which would be a major threat to the global expansion next year.”
這一觀點與各國央行及私人機構(gòu)的主流預(yù)測有所不同。后者普遍認為核心CPI通脹將接近2%，而全球央行有望大幅放松政策。摩根大通首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家 Bruce Kasman 表示：“我們的全球宏觀預(yù)測基于一個不同的敘事，即疫情沖擊與激進政策反應(yīng)的相互作用，將持續(xù)引發(fā)余波，維持高通脹和高利率環(huán)境。這種‘高利率持續(xù)時間更長’的基準預(yù)期，從兩個重要方面挑戰(zhàn)了主流觀點：第一，我們認為商品價格通縮已經(jīng)結(jié)束，且服務(wù)價格通脹不會回歸疫情前的水平。第二，推動全球同步增長的強大動力正在消退?！?/div>
Bruce Kasman ：“我們的基準預(yù)測中，預(yù)計美國政策的實際執(zhí)行力度會較競選時的激進言論有所收斂。但關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險在于，如果政策轉(zhuǎn)向更加極端，情況將大不相同”?！氨热纾绻绹蠓拗瀑Q(mào)易，或者大規(guī)模驅(qū)逐移民，這將引發(fā)更為嚴重的全球供應(yīng)沖擊，而報復(fù)性措施和市場信心下滑將進一步放大這種沖擊，給明年的全球經(jīng)濟擴張帶來巨大威脅?！?/div>
圖：全球經(jīng)濟展望情景
Rates
At a global level, the base case macro view assumes growth resilience and sticky inflation, which limits the magnitude of further policy rate easing in 2025. As a result, DM policy rates will likely remain higher for longer, albeit with continued divergence between U.S. and euro area rates.
However, the new Trump administration could result in tail risks, including a downside scenario where overly aggressive trade and migration policies result in an adverse supply-side shock and negative hit to global sentiment. All in all, J.P. Morgan Research expects DM yields to grind lower over the course of 2025.
In the U.S., there could be more room for the front end of the curve to outperform as the Fed eases through the third quarter of 2025. “Fed expectations are currently pricing in a shallow easing cycle but policy uncertainty is likely to continue in the first half of 2025,” said Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “As such, we forecast 10-year yields to fall to a low of 4.10% in the third quarter and to rebound to 4.25% by year end.”---泉港外貿(mào)網(wǎng)站推廣-泉港谷歌推廣-泉港谷歌優(yōu)化
The outlook appears dimmer in Europe, where the economy could grow at a sluggish sub-potential pace due to heightened trade uncertainty. “The euro area is likely to be the weakest link in the global outlook, and we have a bias for long duration in intermediate EUR versus USD yields,” said Francis Diamond, head of European Rate Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
Over in Japan, rates are expected to continue rising in 2025, driven by the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish stance compared to current market pricing and its decreasing ownership of the coupon JGB market. “We expect modest bear flattening in the cash space, but we have a stronger conviction in the flattening of the front end of the curve,” added Takafumi Yamawaki, head of Japan Fixed Income Research at J.P. Morgan.
In 2025, the policy fallout from the U.S. election will likely inform the direction of FX markets. But beyond this, classical FX drivers such as cyclical/policy differentiation and valuations are expected to play a key role as well.
J.P. Morgan Research is bullish on the U.S. dollar, which could strengthen to new highs in the coming months. “November’s election outcome has given way to lower global growth expectations, wider growth gaps between the U.S. and the rest of the world, and higher terminal Fed funds rate forecasts for 2025 — the perfect trifecta of bullish USD cyclical impulses,” said Meera Chandan, co-head of Global FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “These are early first-order reactions that may give way to deeper rethinks once the full set of Trump administration policies are known next year, but for now, they constitute a solid economic rationale for carrying a long USD stance into the first quarter of 2025.”
In contrast, the outlook for the euro is bearish, especially as the eurozone is particularly susceptible to trade conflicts. “Our EUR/USD forecast looks for a test of parity by the first quarter of 2025 as tariff risks get more fully priced in,” Chandan said. However, EUR/USD could potentially recover to 1.08 later in the year due to mitigating factors including tariff reductions, a resolution of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and a slowdown in U.S. growth.---泉港外貿(mào)網(wǎng)站推廣-泉港谷歌推廣-泉港谷歌優(yōu)化
While sterling has been the best performing currency against the dollar in 2024, a repeat of this major outperformance seems unlikely in the coming year. Instead, GBP/USD is expected to fall to 1.21 in the first quarter of 2025, before recovering to 1.32 by December. “Overall, risks to sterling from weaker U.K. growth and Bank of England (BoE) easing will likely be offset by relative insulation from tariff risks and still-high yield in 2025. This means sterling will likely muddle through, delivering lower returns than recent years,” Chandan added.
In Asia, J.P. Morgan sees some cross-currents for USD/JPY in 2025, with the Japanese yen likely finding a bottom following four consecutive years of underperformance. “Although divergence in the U.S. and Japan monetary policy suggests a modest decline in USD/JPY, it would not be powerful enough to push the pair significantly lower. On the other hand, structural factors including Japan’s weak productivity growth and negative real policy rate continue to limit the yen’s upside,” Chandan said. “Furthermore, excessive yen weakness is not acceptable for both U.S. and Japan policymakers. If yen depreciation accelerates, it would be countered by more hawkish yen-buying interventions.” Taking these factors into account, J.P. Morgan Research expects USD/JPY to reach 152 in the first quarter of 2025, and 148 in the fourth quarter.
Looking to 2025, the global credit ecosystem remains fairly robust. “Positioning does not feel overly stretched, and leverage and complexity appear largely absent. Nor are there any obvious asset-liability mismatches, which tend to portend financial accidents,” said Stephen Dulake, co-head of Fundamental Research at J.P. Morgan. “Moreover, all-in corporate bond yields, especially those in North America, remain in the right zip code to underpin strong domestic institutional and international demand.”
For U.S. credit, yields are expected to stay high throughout 2025, and this could continue to attract strong demand and keep spreads at very tight levels. “The relative strength of U.S. growth versus other markets, as well as the expectation that U.S. policy will favor U.S. assets at the expense of other regions, are supportive of strong overseas demand for U.S. credit. In addition, corporate credit quality is good and is likely to stay that way in 2025,” said Eric Beinstein, head of U.S. Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
In Europe, the backdrop looks more challenging, with the U.S. election creating uncertainty for the credit market. In European investment grade, J.P. Morgan Research forecasts 15 bp of widening next year to 130 bp, implying total returns of 4.5%. “Despite our macro concerns, however, we think any spread widening will be limited, with the technicals likely to remain strong on continued yield buying, a rotation out of cash into fixed income as policy rates decline, and limited net supply as trade uncertainty weighs on business investment and acquisition activity,” said Daniel Lamy, head of European Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan. ---泉港外貿(mào)網(wǎng)站推廣-泉港谷歌推廣-泉港谷歌優(yōu)化
Looking at securitized products, house prices are expected to rise 3% next year. “Although underbuilding has been evident over the last decade, the long-term housing shortage is less clear. Immigration has boosted population growth, driving demand, while vacancy rates point to potential supply constraints,” said John Sim, head of Securitized Products Research at J.P. Morgan.
While agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have lagged other spread products in 2024, valuations look relatively attractive heading into 2025, with more organic net supply ($230 billion) and better bank buying.
美國信貸市場方面，預(yù)計2025年收益率將維持在較高水平，這將持續(xù)吸引大量需求，并使信用利差保持在非常緊縮的狀態(tài)。摩根大通基本面研究聯(lián)席主管 Stephen Dulake 表示：“美國經(jīng)濟增長的相對強勢，以及預(yù)計美國政策將傾向于有利于美國資產(chǎn)、而非其他地區(qū)的資產(chǎn)，都將支持海外投資者對美國信貸的強勁需求。此外，企業(yè)的信用質(zhì)量良好，預(yù)計2025年將保持這一水平?！?/div>
“EM growth faces significant uncertainty in 2025, caught between two giants, China and the U.S., with policy changes in the latter potentially delivering a large negative supply shock that will have spillovers across EM,” said Luis Oganes, head of Global Macro Research at J.P. Morgan.
While EM inflation is expected to slow as services inflation moderates, core goods prices could see a temporary boost from tariffs and FX depreciation. In addition, EM central banks will likely need to contend with changes in U.S. financial conditions and weigh financial stability concerns against the adverse impact on growth from deteriorating sentiment and slowing global trade flows. Overall, weaker domestic growth and ample rate buffers could still leave room for cautious monetary easing in 2025.
“Considering these cross-currents, our baseline forecast looks for EM growth to slow from 4.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025. Excluding China, EM growth would ease only moderately from 3.4% to 3.0%,” Oganes added.
Regional outlooks
EM Asia: The region will likely be in the crosshairs of any U.S.–China trade war in 2025, and J.P. Morgan Research expects GDP growth in the region to slow to 4% should such a scenario unfold.
EM EMEA: Growth is still expected in the region, but at a slower pace and with downside risks. “Despite the less upbeat growth, we have delayed rate cuts in various countries given high and persistent core inflation dynamics, along with rising global risks,” Oganes said.
LATAM: 2025 GDP growth is expected be higher on average versus 2024, mostly on the back of a strong rebound in Argentina. While above-target inflation will likely result in elevated interest rates and fiscal consolidation, medium-term fiscal challenges remain.
Trump’s return to the White House should see a focused agenda with a promise to “rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices and reignite explosive economic growth.” Much of his strategy relies on reducing energy prices, and he has pledged to lower oil costs. Under these plans, deregulation and increased U.S. production present downside risks to oil prices, while upside risks are posed by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela and possibly Russia to limit oil exports and revenues. Weak supply-demand fundamentals may, however, help Trump keep his promise to bring oil prices down.
J.P. Morgan Research’s view has remained largely unchanged over the past year, with expectations of a shift from a balanced market in 2024 to a large surplus in 2025. “We look for a large 1.3 million barrels per day (mbd) surplus and an average of $73 per barrel (bbl) for Brent, although we expect prices to close the year firmly below $70, with WTI at $64/bbl,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan. Crucially, these forecasts assume that OPEC+ stays put at current production levels.
Turning to natural gas, both the European and U.S. markets are likely to remain in a fairly balanced state, weather-adjusted, until supply growth becomes apparent. “For the European natural gas market, with growing baseload needs around the globe, supply growth may not happen until mid-2026,” said Shikha Chaturvedi, head of Global Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “However, for the U.S. natural gas market, it could be as early as late-2025, as midstream infrastructure is expected to allow for more movement of molecules from production zones to demand regions in the Gulf of Mexico.” ---泉港外貿(mào)網(wǎng)站推廣-泉港谷歌推廣-泉港谷歌優(yōu)化
The rally looks set to rumble on for precious metals, with constrained supply setting the stage for stronger base metal prices later in 2025. “We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold as the most likely macro scenarios in 2025 still skew bullish for the metal,” said Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “We are forecasting prices to rise towards $3,000/oz next year.”
What about silver? “Silver’s time to shine comes after base metals likely finding a bottom in early 2025,” Shearer added. “We see a catchup trade propelling silver prices toward $38/oz by year-end.”
For agriculture markets, a low inventory base at the global level continues to limit downside price risks into 2025. More volatility could lie ahead, though. “U.S. trade, foreign policy and wider geopolitical developments ahead add complexity through the 2025/26 balances, with more immediate impacts for price,” said Tracey Allen, an agricultural commodities strategist at J.P. Morgan. “We anticipate a more volatile price environment for agricultural commodities through 2025–2026, particularly for U.S. trade-exposed soybean, corn, cotton and wheat markets.”
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